Congress has never willfully let the United
States default on any of its legal obligations. So it's impossible to say with
certainty what will happen if lawmakers don't approve a debt ceiling increase
soon.
This much is certain: If Congress fails to act,
the Treasury Department won't be able to borrow new money and will soon be
strapped for cash to pay all the country's bills coming due.
And most economists and budget experts are fairly unanimous: The
outcome would be ugly for the economy and markets. The question is just how
ugly.
One factor may be how long the situation lasts. Will Congress
let Treasury go just a day or two without sufficient cash to pay the bills? Or will it last a
month or more?
Perception will also matter. If Treasury can't pay everything in
full for a few days but keeps making interest payments on bonds, will the
markets dismiss the situation as an embarrassment but not a fatal blow?
Or will defaulting on any legal obligation by the world's
largest economy be viewed by investors and ordinary Americans as crossing the
Rubicon?
Regardless, it's time to start thinking about the unthinkable,
if you haven't already. Here's what many believe is at risk if lawmakers do
decide to test the waters of default.
Your nest egg: There's good reason to think the stock
market could drop precipitously.
In summer 2011 Congress fought bitterly about the debt ceiling
for months before raising the nation's borrowing limit on Aug. 2, barely
averting a default. Standard & Poor's called foul anyway
and stripped the United States of its sterling AAA credit rating three days
later.
Stocks got walloped. The S&P 500 index had fallen roughly
17% from its highest point on July 7 to its lowest on Aug. 8.
By the end of August, they had recovered somewhat but were still
down 9% for the summer.
And that was without one payment being missed to anyone.
Your job: Recessions kill jobs. And a recession is what economists predict will happen
if Treasury is allowed to fall short of the cash needed to pay incoming bills
this month and lawmakers don't raise the debt ceiling for weeks thereafter.
That would force Congress to abruptly slash spending
or hike taxes to
such an extent that it would slam the brakes on growth.
Your loans: If stocks start to tank, that could send
investors racing into Treasury bonds in pursuit of a safe place to put their
money. That's what happened after the debt ceiling fight in 2011. Treasury
rates, already low, fell further.
But that may not happen if the United States were to miss or
delay an interest payment on a bond -- which, it should be noted, most believe
is unlikely to happen. But if it did,investors may demand higher rates to continue
investing in new U.S. debt.
As reported in CNN Money!
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